Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf229…4b06 crypto 139 markets active 4d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+3%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%106W / 33L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$31
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$36
politics 3% +$9
world 2% −$6
other 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -5.8% -14.8% 70% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 112 -0.6% -10.0% 76% 22% -8.4%
≤90d 136 +1.9% -7.8% 77% 29% -8.1%
all 139 +2.1% -7.6% 76% 29% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 29% -8.1%
10% -16.4% 12% -16.9%
15% -24.5% 7% -24.9%
20% -31.9% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses106 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage87d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$36 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $68 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$76 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $86 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $87 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1061 history records