Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf225…42e0 weather 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,784 (+4%) realized +$1,884 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%62W / 86L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$1,686
14 days−$1,515
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$617
world 29% +$1,094
weather 29% −$425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.9% -16.7% 43% 29% -26.8%
≤30d 52 -16.4% -24.4% 44% 31% -11.8%
≤90d 148 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 32% -6.5%
all 148 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 32% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 32% -6.5%
10% -18.1% 23% -15.5%
15% -26.0% 18% -23.6%
20% -33.2% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$47 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$1,884
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage72d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Yes 82¢ 13¢ $119 $19 −$100 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $23 +$51 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $3,073 +$48 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $2,010 +$21 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $46 +$27 +59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $139 −$24 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3,266 −$1,708 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 +$8 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$29 +95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$16 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2,702 +$193 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $161 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $199 −$38 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$11 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $179 −$179 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $160 +$19 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $144 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$50 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $106 −$12 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$45 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $219 −$56 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $55 −$36 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $799 +$244 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $162 +$38 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $48 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $128 +$46 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $116 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 07 $92 +$23 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $199 −$106 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2,467 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $29 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2,420 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,570 +$254 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $102 +$31 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $118 −$118 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $153 −$145 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $64 +$49 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 71¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 69¢ $181 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 67¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 51¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 52¢ $152 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 43¢ $242 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 55¢ $510 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 52¢ $2,049 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 52¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 52¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 38¢ $75 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 37¢ $81 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 43¢ $262 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 46¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.81 · official $18.81 (match) · 931 history records