Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf224…dc0a other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized +$16 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$8
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$5
other 18% +$13
sports 17% −$7
crypto 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.8% -32.8% 50% 33% -19.9%
≤30d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 33% -6.6%
≤90d 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 33% -6.6%
all 21 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 33% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -6.6%
10% -25.2% 33% -15.5%
15% -32.4% 24% -23.7%
20% -39.0% 19% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage27d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $14 +$5 (+47%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 48¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+60%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 50¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 36¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $56 +$4 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 07 $47 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$6 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $69 +$17 +26%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $10 −$3 -31%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 29 $20 +$1 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 +$3 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3 +$2 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $7 −$2 -28%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 AND Will Czechia win on BUY 39¢ $7 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $13 4d
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 10d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 10d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $24 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $10 12d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $10 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $5 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $5 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $26 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $26 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $10 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $10 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $47 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $47 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $10 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 94¢ $10 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.21 · official $51.76 · 74 history records