Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf221…8920 politics 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$18
economics 12% −$2
other 3% −$1
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 96 -7.7% -16.5% 3% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 1% -9.6%
10% -24.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage695d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $58 $0 +1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Alexandre de Moraes jail in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in December? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Roaring Kitty jail in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Doug Collins confirmed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Will Mike Lee be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference? Dec 21 $0 $0 -5%
Democrats win popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Carlton Carrington win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 10 $1 $0 -4%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Lions win the NFC North? Nov 26 $0 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Someone else announced as next BlackRock CEO? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 17d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 18d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $57 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $57 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 38d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 41d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 42d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 48d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 49d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 72d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $58 73d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 86d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 87d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 96d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 96d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $58 99d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 100d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 101d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $58 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 104d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 107d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $15 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records