Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf21d…2e9a sports 508 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,993 (+13%) realized +$3,269 · open −$276
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate67%337W / 168L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$435est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$725
7 days+$725
14 days+$725
30 days+$904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2,101
other 5% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.6% +11.9% 92% 92% +11.7%
≤30d 53 +24.6% +12.7% 83% 77% +9.0%
≤90d 505 +12.7% +2.0% 67% 55% +0.2%
all 505 +12.7% +2.0% 67% 55% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 55% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 47% -9.4%
15% -16.7% 39% -18.1%
20% -24.8% 30% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$25 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$3,269
Unrealized−$276
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses337 / 168
Est. fees paid−$435
Open positions3
Markets (closed)505 / 508
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Sharks 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 53¢ 54¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 DK 61¢ 0¢ $277 $0 −$277 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $279 −$262 -94%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $498 +$202 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $9 +$1 +11%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $9 +$1 +11%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 +$21 +43%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $511 +$97 +19%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $359 +$74 +21%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $99 +$55 +56%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,091 +$484 +44%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $114 +$25 +22%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $70 +$25 +35%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $51 −$38 -74%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $17 +$8 +49%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $17 +$9 +52%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $17 +$8 +49%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $17 +$2 +11%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner May 30 $17 +$10 +61%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $17 +$9 +54%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 30 $17 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 30 $33 +$1 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 30 $50 +$30 +59%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $78 +$25 +32%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $32 +$28 +86%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 30 $16 +$9 +55%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $32 +$18 +58%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $30 +$17 +56%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $47 +$16 +34%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $128 −$68 -53%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $16 +$4 +23%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $32 +$17 +53%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $16 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $16 −$8 -52%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 29 $32 +$16 +51%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 29 $16 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $45 +$60 +134%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $91 −$15 -16%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $10 $0 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $30 +$28 +95%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 29 $57 +$42 +73%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $13 +$7 +54%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 29 $14 +$9 +63%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $78 −$70 -90%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 28 $47 +$10 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 51¢ $50 9m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 25¢ $25 23m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 42¢ $21 24m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 55¢ $22 29m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 75¢ $2 29m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 75¢ $6 29m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 76¢ $19 30m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 76¢ $19 30m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 53¢ $26 35m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 92¢ $32 45m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 92¢ $49 45m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 92¢ $11 48m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 82¢ $8 49m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 82¢ $74 49m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 86¢ $151 54m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 86¢ $1 54m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 86¢ $20 54m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 75¢ $19 56m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 75¢ $56 57m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 80¢ $80 57m
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 84¢ $85 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 95¢ $431 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 95¢ $49 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 95¢ $1 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 79¢ $2 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 79¢ $5 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 79¢ $5 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 79¢ $2 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 79¢ $21 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 79¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.32 · official $77.32 (match) · 3500 history records