Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf21d…24f6 crypto 354 markets active 6d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%123W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$50
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$92
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +12.6% +1.9% 22% 19% -40.7%
≤30d 353 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -8.1%
≤90d 353 -14.8% -22.9% 35% 33% -8.1%
all 354 -15.0% -23.1% 35% 32% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 32% -8.1%
10% -30.5% 30% -16.9%
15% -37.2% 28% -24.9%
20% -43.4% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses123 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)354 / 354
History coverage88d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 354 Trades
no open positions (195 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$5 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $0 +$9 +4529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$2 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$5 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1584 history records