Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf21c…6934 crypto 880 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$308 (-6%) realized −$310 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%450W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$191
crypto 20% −$96
sports 5% −$73
world 1% −$47
economics 0% −$12
politics 0% −$20
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -53.1% -57.6% 23% 23% -66.1%
≤30d 13 -53.1% -57.6% 23% 23% -66.1%
≤90d 118 -19.7% -27.4% 36% 29% -12.0%
all 872 -17.2% -25.1% 52% 38% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 38% -17.0%
10% -32.2% 26% -24.9%
15% -38.8% 17% -32.2%
20% -44.8% 11% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses450 / 422
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)872 / 880
History coverage208d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 872 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 30¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+146%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$6 +164%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -88%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $1 +$1 +85%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $2 $0 +7%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $1 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $29 −$28 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $81 −$77 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $133 +$12 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $78 +$238 +305%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $57 +$42 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $64 −$34 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $3 −$2 -61%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 25 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $140 −$23 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $91 +$204 +225%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $40 −$2 -5%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $0 $0 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $3 −$2 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 56¢ $9 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $1 39m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 42m
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42m
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 44m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 44m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 17¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 38¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 41¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 47¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 68¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 75¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $70 31d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $2 33d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $60 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.29 · official $12.29 (match) · 2370 history records