trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +40.0% | +26.6% | 75% | 50% | +6.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +41.3% | +27.9% | 71% | 57% | +15.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +29.8% | +17.5% | 62% | 50% | -34.8% |
| all | 8 | +29.8% | +17.5% | 62% | 50% | -34.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +17.5% | 50% | -34.8% |
| 10% | +6.2% | 50% | -41.1% |
| 15% | -4.0% | 50% | -46.8% |
| 20% | -13.4% | 50% | -52.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $13 | −$7 (-34%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 46¢ | 44¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 49¢ | 46¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-18%) |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 16¢ | 11¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-31%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 26 | $10 | +$17 | +159% |
| Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 25 | $10 | +$7 | +67% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 24 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $20 | −$15 | -74% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$10 | +97% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca | Jun 02 | $10 | +$8 | +82% |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 18 | $198 | −$100 | -51% |