Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf216…4844
weather · 494 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$588 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$829 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized+$829
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses351 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)492 / 494
History coverage208d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 492 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$241
14 days+$241
30 days+$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 19¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? No 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 27? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$40 +94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$25 +154%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$96 +190%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$13 +82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $165 +$27 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $56 +$13 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 −$14 -56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $54 +$12 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $9 −$7 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $52 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $1 +$5 +551%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $16 +$9 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27? May 28 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $11 +$21 +185%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? May 26 $11 −$6 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or below on May 26? May 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $21 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 26 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 26 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 25? May 26 $355 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 25 $3 +$5 +153%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 24? May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24? May 25 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24? May 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14? May 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14? May 15 $84 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 15? May 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14? May 14 $3 +$6 +179%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$812
crypto 0% −$26
tech 0% +$34
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $99 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 96¢ $30 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 58¢ $15 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 69¢ $26 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $44 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +35.2% +22.3% 89% 56% +10.1%
≤30d 46 +27.8% +15.6% 85% 33% -2.7%
≤90d 95 +12.4% +1.7% 78% 35% -3.2%
all 492 +11.9% +1.2% 71% 29% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 29% -8.2%
10% -8.5% 22% -17.0%
15% -17.3% 17% -25.0%
20% -25.4% 13% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.31 · official $18.31 (match) · 3500 history records