Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf20f…804c world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$2
other 25% −$13
politics 3% $0
weather 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 32 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 3% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 3% -11.5%
10% -24.9% 0% -19.9%
15% -32.1% 0% -27.7%
20% -38.8% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage468d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Human case of new COVID disease before April? Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $36 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $5 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $5 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $36 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records