Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf20f…765b politics 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$759 (+0%) realized +$759 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,545per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$29
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1,713
politics 39% −$98
sports 13% −$896
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$6
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +6.5% -3.6% 14% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 89 +8.0% -2.3% 9% 7% -9.2%
all 138 +6.2% -3.9% 19% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 15% -9.2%
10% -13.1% 14% -17.9%
15% -21.5% 12% -25.8%
20% -29.2% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,918) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$18 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized+$759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage118d
Avg bet$1,545
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $535 $535 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $371 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $2,193 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $3,598 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $7,113 −$8 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5,107 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $947 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,284 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $326 +$7 +2%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $2,304 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,844 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,738 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,392 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,090 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $79 +$74 +93%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $787 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $70 +$68 +97%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,760 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $844 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $236 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $67 +$120 +180%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $41 +$63 +152%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 19 $879 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $784 −$2 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 19 $826 +$1,407 +170%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $975 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,892 −$5 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,217 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $745 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $535 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $371 15h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $371 18h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $471 21h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $472 23h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $653 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $449 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $605 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $605 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $552 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $553 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $723 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $725 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $538 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $539 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $272 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $272 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $929 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $931 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $748 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $973 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $974 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.93 · official $534.93 (match) · 492 history records