Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf20d…e9de other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$14
politics 11% −$8
other 9% −$28
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$40
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 -4.1% -13.3% 23% 12% -9.1%
all 60 -3.4% -12.6% 23% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 10% -9.6%
10% -21.0% 10% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage607d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $17 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $201 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $119 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $103 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$3 +24%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $10 +$10 +100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $24 $0 +2%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $36 +$19 +52%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 01 $24 +$30 +126%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Mar 30 $21 +$29 +138%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $92 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 19h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $21 22d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $21 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 23d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 27d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $13 27d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $13 27d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 30d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 31d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $93 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.35 · official $85.35 (match) · 280 history records