Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf20c…7b17 sports 11 markets active 10h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-66%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$20
other 37% −$35
world 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -47.0% -52.1% 18% 18% -70.8%
≤30d 11 -47.0% -52.1% 18% 18% -70.8%
≤90d 11 -47.0% -52.1% 18% 18% -70.8%
all 11 -47.0% -52.1% 18% 18% -70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 18% -70.8%
10% -56.7% 18% -73.6%
15% -60.8% 18% -76.1%
20% -64.7% 18% -78.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$7 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 10h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 36h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $13 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $6 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $5 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 41h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 44h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $10 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records