Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf20b…e27d sports 975 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$5,158 (+13%) realized +$4,878 · open +$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%483W / 450L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day52.3pace
Fees−$613est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,544now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$460
14 days+$3,473
30 days+$4,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$5,238
other 4% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 +45.7% +31.8% 47% 46% -5.3%
≤30d 856 +63.0% +47.5% 52% 52% +1.2%
≤90d 933 +60.7% +45.4% 52% 51% +1.2%
all 933 +60.7% +45.4% 52% 51% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +45.4% 51% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here +31.4% 49% -8.5%
15% +18.7% 45% -17.3%
20% +7.1% 40% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +59% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,544
Realized+$4,878
Unrealized+$280
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses483 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$613
Open positions42
Markets (closed)933 / 975
History coverage34d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 26¢ 50¢ $160 $311 +$151 (+94%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 50¢ 56¢ $150 $168 +$18 (+12%)
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) Noir Esports 32¢ 50¢ $95 $150 +$55 (+58%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 38¢ $72 $110 +$38 (+52%)
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage YFP Gaming 35¢ 38¢ $92 $101 +$9 (+10%)
Map Handicap: FQ (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+1.5) Evil Geniuses Academy 65¢ 100¢ $54 $83 +$29 (+54%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 44¢ 50¢ $72 $81 +$10 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs MIBR (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage B8 49¢ 57¢ $64 $75 +$11 (+17%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 16¢ 6¢ $161 $65 −$96 (-59%)
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner University War 70¢ 100¢ $27 $38 +$11 (+43%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 45¢ 62¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+40%)
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Power Rangers 63¢ 70¢ $28 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) T1 82¢ 87¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner SaD Esports 42¢ 50¢ $23 $28 +$4 (+19%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Shopify Rebellion Black 66¢ 66¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier FaZe Vegas 42¢ 58¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+38%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 78¢ 79¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 81¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 42¢ 48¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+13%)
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 65¢ 66¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage EYEBALLERS 31¢ 34¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Spacestation Gaming 43¢ 44¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 86¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Game 3: Any Player Rampage? No 45¢ 41¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Execration 37¢ 64¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $68 +$122 +180%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$22 +127%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: WOL (-1.5) vs Kuaishou Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$10 +156%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 17 $4 +$2 +37%
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Game Handicap: TTG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: TTG (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $143 +$182 +127%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 +$10 +376%
Game Handicap: WB (-2.5) vs eStar Pro (+2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$5 +400%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $1 +$1 +108%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $166 +$170 +103%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $25 +$16 +66%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $16 +$34 +211%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $143 +$186 +130%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) Jun 16 $8 +$8 +100%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $98 −$89 -92%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pac Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $195 −$45 -23%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$9 +117%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$69 +108%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $38 +$73 +194%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 16 $243 +$55 +22%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $31 +$50 +163%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $8 +$4 +47%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs Galions (+2.5) Jun 15 $33 +$15 +45%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $0 +$1 +3233%
Game Handicap: Nande+4 (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Game Handicap: Noir (-1.5) vs Nande+4 (+1.5) Jun 15 $87 +$13 +14%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $106 +$35 +33%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 15 $273 +$27 +10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 12¢ $1 11m
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 1 Winner BUY University War 70¢ $27 6h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze - Map 2 Winner BUY University War 70¢ $5 6h
Map Handicap: FQ (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+1.5) BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 65¢ $50 8h
Map Handicap: FQ (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses Academy (+1.5) BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 65¢ $4 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 44¢ $75 9h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY YFP Gaming 35¢ $92 11h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 55¢ $3 11h
Game Handicap: WOL (-1.5) vs Kuaishou Gaming (+1.5) BUY Kuaishou Gaming 39¢ $6 18h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $3 18h
Game Handicap: WB (-2.5) vs eStar Pro (+2.5) BUY Weibo Gaming 20¢ $1 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Ame BUY Spacestation Gaming 43¢ $14 20h
Game 3: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 44¢ $4 20h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 65¢ $19 20h
Honor of Kings: Weibo Gaming vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stag BUY Weibo Gaming 73¢ $4 21h
Game 3: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 46¢ $5 21h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $160 22h
Map Handicap: NTR (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) BUY Nuclear TigeRES 13¢ $0 22h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 17¢ $51 23h
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 22¢ $1 24h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Execration 54¢ $1 24h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 9¢ $0 27h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 9¢ $0 27h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 12¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 28¢ $54 27h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY InterActive Philippines 23¢ $0 27h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 74¢ $3 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 44¢ $16 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,544.21 · official $1,544.10 (match) · 2827 history records