Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf20b…d06a weather 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%174W / 15L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$10
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% $0
other 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 91% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 136 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 189 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses174 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage128d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? No 100¢ 72¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 2? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 29? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 28? May 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 28? May 28 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 23? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ma May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ma May 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 15? May 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 13? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 12? May 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 12h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $35 36h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $59 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $59 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $114 9d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $8 12d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $40 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $111 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $61 14d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $114 15d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $69 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $108 16d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $112 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $105 18d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $104 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.82 · official $60.82 (match) · 418 history records