Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf20a…eb19 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$4
other 16% −$1
finance 4% +$1
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 29 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 39 -2.5% -11.8% 28% 3% -9.7%
all 40 -4.9% -14.0% 28% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -10.1%
10% -22.2% 2% -18.7%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage491d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +25%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $88 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $38 −$4 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 −$3 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $235 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $225 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $233 +$3 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $232 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $8 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $256 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
UAB vs. Rice Mar 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $34 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $31 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $10 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $42 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $13 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $26 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $39 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.24 (match) · 154 history records