Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf208…5eef politics 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$683 (-0%) realized −$423 · open −$260
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%181W / 81L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$553per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$1,748
14 days+$1,748
30 days−$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$3,047
politics 23% −$578
economics 19% −$100
world 18% +$1,913
tech 8% +$288
sports 4% +$4
finance 2% −$168
crypto 1% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +314.7% +275.2% 100% 88% +34.9%
≤30d 36 +108.0% +88.2% 75% 31% +2.0%
≤90d 64 +62.1% +46.7% 73% 28% +6.5%
all 262 +7.5% -2.7% 69% 24% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 24% -7.3%
10% -12.0% 15% -16.2%
15% -20.5% 10% -24.3%
20% -28.3% 8% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$180 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$5,766
Realized−$423
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses181 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)262 / 274
History coverage400d
Avg bet$553
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,512 $2,511 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 82¢ $1,560 $1,560 −$0 (-0%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 83¢ 62¢ $967 $716 −$251 (-26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $675 $675 −$0 (-0%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $85 $108 +$23 (+27%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $22 $27 +$4 (+20%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $60 $23 −$37 (-62%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 42¢ 35¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $88 +$12 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,064 +$374 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $482 +$545 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,072 +$439 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $518 +$62 +12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $52 +$148 +284%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $658 +$167 +25%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $1,807 +$3 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $3,457 −$2,443 -71%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,954 −$460 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $144 −$79 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,914 −$801 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $8 +$1 +18%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $42 −$10 -24%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? May 29 $83 +$1 +2%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $82 +$15 +18%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 28 $44 +$1 +2%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? May 28 $137 +$3 +2%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $3,220 +$496 +15%
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026? May 28 $97 −$5 -5%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? May 28 $594 +$28 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $11 −$8 -76%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $196 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $648 +$671 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 65B in Q1? May 21 $24 +$1 +5%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 70B in Q1? May 21 $125 +$5 +4%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 55B in Q1? May 21 $128 +$8 +6%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 60B in Q1? May 21 $251 +$4 +2%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1? May 21 $265 +$1 +0%
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? May 21 $1,078 +$2 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 20 $226 +$6 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1,198 +$28 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 20 $1,773 +$58 +3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2 +$8 +384%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 16 $203 +$2 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 12 $359 +$5 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 07 $537 +$393 +73%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $2,253 +$7 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 30 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $66 +$8 +12%
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 30 $127 +$10 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $2,021 +$10 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $211 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,512 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $675 50m
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 82¢ $328 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $85 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,064 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $563 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $580 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $76 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $288 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $78 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $115 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $56 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $302 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $549 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $511 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,766.10 · official $5,766.10 (match) · 1258 history records