Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf206…b7a1 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 123L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$37
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$17
other 23% −$36
sports 19% −$14
crypto 14% −$9
economics 7% −$4
finance 6% −$8
world 4% −$9
culture 2% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 66 -1.2% -10.7% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 117 -0.8% -10.3% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 139 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage107d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $59 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $329 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $148 −$4 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $158 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $221 −$4 -2%
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $48 −$10 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $49 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 05 $55 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 04 $9 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 02 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $56 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $58 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 8h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $51 8h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $51 16h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $41 16h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 20h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 21h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 26h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 89¢ $55 26h
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 90¢ $56 31h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 32h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 38h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $59 45h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $49 2d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $50 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $61 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $62 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $55 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 4d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.54 · official $57.54 (match) · 549 history records