Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf206…df39 crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+1%) realized +$143 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 132L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$550
7 days+$59
14 days−$93
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$149
crypto 2% −$153
other 1% +$25
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +35.1% +22.3% 57% 57% -7.9%
≤30d 104 +2.8% -7.0% 48% 45% -8.3%
≤90d 178 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 43% -9.3%
all 253 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -9.4%
10% -23.0% 39% -18.1%
15% -30.4% 32% -26.0%
20% -37.3% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$47 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage94d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 42¢ 42¢ $510 $503 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $304 +$204 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $434 −$72 -17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $136 +$270 +199%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $761 −$576 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $616 −$377 -61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $557 +$407 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$352 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $195 −$179 -92%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $152 −$152 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$55 +54%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $745 −$745 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $735 −$354 -48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $304 +$188 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $254 +$216 +85%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $304 +$196 +65%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $371 +$193 +52%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $287 +$86 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $183 +$181 +99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$6 +60%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $183 +$45 +25%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $328 +$54 +16%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $283 +$121 +43%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $192 +$134 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $187 +$97 +52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $253 +$132 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $129 −$129 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $162 +$92 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $253 −$253 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $201 +$56 +28%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $87 +$119 +137%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $70 +$13 +19%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $456 −$310 -68%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $282 −$282 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $253 +$170 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $152 +$9 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $101 −$8 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $509 5m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $508 21m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $304 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 81¢ $314 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 82¢ $322 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $47 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $125 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 73¢ $181 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 25¢ $185 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $569 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 51¢ $233 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 48¢ $240 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $373 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $964 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $557 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $204 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 71¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $184 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.27 · official $503.27 (match) · 764 history records