Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf206…5e50 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$184 (-37%) realized −$177 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$178
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$143
sports 15% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -7.6% -16.4% 23% 15% -56.7%
≤90d 13 -7.6% -16.4% 23% 15% -56.7%
all 13 -7.6% -16.4% 23% 15% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 15% -56.7%
10% -24.4% 15% -60.8%
15% -31.7% 15% -64.6%
20% -38.4% 15% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage14d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $9 +$23 +249%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $14 +$93 +650%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$54 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $92 −$90 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $123 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 9d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 9d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 11d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 11d
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 11d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 11d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 13d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 13d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.08 · official $133.08 (match) · 25 history records