Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf201…bf3f crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$75 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate60%80W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$52
crypto 39% −$48
weather 2% −$6
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -0.8% -10.2% 60% 58% -5.7%
≤30d 133 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 59% -5.6%
≤90d 133 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 59% -5.6%
all 133 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 59% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 59% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 47% -14.6%
15% -26.6% 33% -22.9%
20% -33.8% 19% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses80 / 53
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)133 / 138
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 58¢ 29¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-49%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ 44¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +30%
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$5 +117%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +162%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $15 1m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $47 16m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $23 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $20 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $15 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 58¢ $30 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 56¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 49¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $34 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 5h
Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots BUY Yes 62¢ $10 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $4 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 18h
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Bernard Tomic 57¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 97¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 83¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.96 · official $37.45 · 255 history records