Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf201…527e sports 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (257 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$332,336 (+76%) realized +$353,298 · open −$20,962
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%62W / 269L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,238per market
Trades / day256.6pace
Fees−$7,834est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$32,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$61,081
other 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (257 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+64.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 +87.9% +70.0% 17% 17% -74.2%
≤30d 331 +82.1% +64.7% 19% 18% -71.9%
≤90d 331 +82.1% +64.7% 19% 18% -71.9%
all 331 +82.1% +64.7% 19% 18% -71.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover256.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.7% 18% -71.9%
10% +49.0% 18% -74.6%
15% ← realistic here +34.6% 17% -77.0%
20% +21.4% 16% -79.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$3,921) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late +189% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
38.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,079 vs −$3,150 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$32,260
Realized+$353,298
Unrealized−$20,962
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses62 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$7,834
Open positions6
Markets (closed)331 / 70
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$6,238
Trades / day256.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 98¢ 100¢ $30,976 $31,476 +$500 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $527 $557 +$30 (+6%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 7¢ 1¢ $858 $154 −$704 (-82%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ 0¢ $10,283 $29 −$10,254 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 17¢ 0¢ $9,462 $27 −$9,435 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 11¢ 0¢ $1,104 $5 −$1,099 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 314 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $0 −$152 -58369%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $0 +$28,044 +9640479%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2 +$39 +1682%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 28 $683 −$683 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $0 +$2,868 +601788%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $5,949 −$5,949 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $0 +$16,925 +7132173%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $4,704 −$3,808 -81%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $0 +$5,164 +2449514%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $0 −$1 -576%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $0 −$251 -66975%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $0 −$168 -119226%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 28 $143 +$884 +618%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $0 +$728 +840492%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $2,126 −$2,126 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 28 $0 −$1 -602%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $100 −$236 -236%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 Winner Jun 28 $2,718 −$2,718 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 28 $4,895 −$111 -2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $2,203 −$2,203 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 28 $9,792 −$8,679 -89%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $4,675 −$4,973 -106%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $292 −$992 -340%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $45 +$213 +478%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 28 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 28 $1,209 −$98 -8%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $68 −$68 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $8,184 −$7,435 -91%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $35 −$20 -57%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 28 $2,163 −$1,540 -71%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 28 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $333 −$341 -102%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 28 $0 +$9 +27957%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 28 $1,420 −$1,119 -79%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,310 −$1,912 -83%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 28 $353 −$285 -81%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $5,260 −$5,260 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,669 −$3,141 -118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $52 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $1 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $1 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $63 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 3¢ $3 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 5¢ $1 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 4¢ $80 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 5¢ $0 30m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 5¢ $19 31m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $72 31m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $85 32m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $62 32m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 14¢ $280 33m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $1 33m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $8 35m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $8 35m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $3,117 35m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $900 36m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 18¢ $2,773 36m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 21¢ $840 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $2 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $2 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $0 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $19 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $6 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $1 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $2 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $2 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $38 37m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 24¢ $3 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,260.19 · official $32,248.58 (match) · 3500 history records