Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf201…b77c other 169 markets active 18h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate53%89W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$9
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.7% -37.3% 22% 22% -37.1%
≤30d 28 -16.1% -24.1% 36% 36% -12.1%
≤90d 104 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 33% -11.1%
all 167 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 34% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 34% -10.0%
10% -16.3% 27% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 20% -26.5%
20% -31.8% 17% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses89 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)167 / 169
History coverage140d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +232%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 +$5 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$4 +183%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $4 +$3 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $4 +$2 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $2 +$3 +206%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $4 −$2 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $15 −$11 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.92 · official $1.92 (match) · 407 history records