Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf1ff…01a2 world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$178 (-9%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$179
world 33% −$3
other 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -17.9% -25.7% 0% 0% -21.8%
≤30d 8 -41.6% -47.2% 25% 12% -48.6%
≤90d 12 -26.7% -33.7% 42% 8% -17.9%
all 12 -26.7% -33.7% 42% 8% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 8% -17.9%
10% -40.0% 0% -25.8%
15% -45.8% 0% -33.0%
20% -51.1% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$48 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage76d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 17 $39 −$14 -36%
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 +$7 +10%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $79 +$10 +12%
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5) May 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? May 30 $50 −$10 -20%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) Apr 26 $422 +$17 +4%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $422 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5) Apr 10 $303 +$22 +7%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $290 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No $31 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No $34 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $33 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $31 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $33 2h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $31 2h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $13 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $12 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $20 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $19 6d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $41 17d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $39 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $39 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $38 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $35 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $35 17d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium $30 22d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium $29 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $1 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $45 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $43 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $40 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $39 22d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $37 24d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $42 24d
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? SELL Yes $20 24d
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? SELL Yes $19 24d
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? BUY Yes $26 24d
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? BUY Yes $24 24d
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) BUY Eyüpspor 96¢ $230 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.39 · official $64.39 (match) · 39 history records