Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf1fd…a5bb crypto 490 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$246 (-2%) realized −$258 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate66%360W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$383
7 days−$434
14 days−$327
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -19.9% -27.5% 61% 61% -16.9%
≤30d 298 -18.4% -26.2% 61% 61% -14.9%
≤90d 549 -12.6% -20.9% 66% 60% -14.4%
all 549 -12.6% -20.9% 66% 60% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 60% -14.4%
10% -28.5% 38% -22.6%
15% -35.4% 20% -30.1%
20% -41.7% 11% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses360 / 189
Open positions2
Markets (closed)549 / 490
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 1PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 12PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 1AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 7AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 2PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 8AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 1PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $29 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $13 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $84 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $16 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $42 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $18 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $35 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $17 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $56 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.09 · official $246.09 (match) · 3500 history records