Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1fc…5b7c crypto 128 markets active 13h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate72%92W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +2.1% -7.6% 80% 63% -9.3%
≤30d 128 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 60% -11.7%
≤90d 128 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 60% -11.7%
all 128 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 60% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 60% -11.7%
10% -22.2% 39% -20.2%
15% -29.8% 15% -27.9%
20% -36.6% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses92 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records