Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf1fa…11da crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-14%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$13
other 38% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 33% -22.1%
≤30d 6 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 33% -22.1%
≤90d 6 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 33% -22.1%
all 6 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 33% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 33% -22.1%
10% -24.7% 17% -29.6%
15% -32.0% 0% -36.4%
20% -38.7% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $34 −$33 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$7 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$5 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $22 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $34 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $27 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $22 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records