Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1f7…167a sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%34W / 27L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$330est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$996
14 days−$361
30 days+$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,221
other 2% −$500
crypto 0% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 57% +9.9%
≤30d 45 -3.9% -13.1% 58% 56% -5.4%
≤90d 61 -7.9% -16.7% 56% 54% -6.6%
all 61 -7.9% -16.7% 56% 54% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 54% -6.6%
10% -24.6% 44% -15.6%
15% -31.9% 34% -23.7%
20% -38.6% 26% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$574) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$244 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses34 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage50d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $580 +$198 +34%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $540 +$40 +8%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $289 −$286 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $252 −$250 -99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $226 +$73 +32%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sene Jun 26 $356 +$471 +132%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $193 −$190 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $141 +$61 +43%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 −$11 -54%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,012 +$326 +32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AN Jun 26 $139 +$217 +157%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $886 +$351 +40%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 +$2 +75%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $623 −$615 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $298 +$326 +109%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $934 −$635 -68%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $59 −$58 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $292 −$288 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $70 −$69 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $999 +$357 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $199 −$196 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $115 +$84 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $333 −$218 -66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $386 −$53 -14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $231 +$155 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $398 −$395 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $326 +$173 +53%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $492 −$166 -34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $998 +$319 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 −$400 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $215 +$193 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,000 +$213 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $375 +$309 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $708 +$182 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$23 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $90 +$14 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,173 +$125 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $495 −$27 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $504 +$200 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $578 +$373 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,171 +$399 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,000 +$172 +17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,298 +$1,115 +86%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $106 −$105 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 21 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 20 $11 +$8 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $778 16m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $580 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $580 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $540 9h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $199 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $91 27h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $252 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Alg BUY 38¢ $45 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $298 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $226 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $193 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $203 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 24¢ $9 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 69¢ $141 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,338 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,012 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sene BUY 42¢ $356 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY 41¢ $98 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 38¢ $139 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $886 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 39¢ $113 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $623 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $624 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $298 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $299 7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 56¢ $3 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $934 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records