Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1f6…28c6 sports 133 markets active 3h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,807 (-11%) realized −$1,807 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%64W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$411
14 days−$116
30 days+$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,037
other 3% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +76.2% +59.4% 71% 71% +53.7%
≤30d 27 +40.7% +27.3% 63% 63% +14.5%
≤90d 80 -2.1% -11.5% 51% 51% -9.2%
all 132 -11.5% -19.9% 48% 48% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 48% -19.7%
10% -27.6% 48% -27.4%
15% -34.6% 42% -34.4%
20% -41.0% 30% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$112 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,807
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses64 / 68
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage167d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 34¢ 34¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $63 +$137 +216%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $97 +$103 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$149 +291%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $115 +$85 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $141 −$140 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $243 −$238 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $447 −$440 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $303 +$547 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $75 +$125 +165%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $79 +$121 +152%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $93 +$107 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $87 +$113 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $95 +$105 +109%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $119 +$81 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $93 +$107 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$105 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $104 +$46 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $131 +$69 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $83 −$82 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $59 −$58 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $119 +$81 +67%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $121 +$79 +65%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $57 +$43 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 30 $103 −$3 -3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $138 +$60 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $35 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $63 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $135 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $53 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $97 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $75 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $115 7d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $107 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $111 9d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $69 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $65 11d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 70¢ $141 12d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 29¢ $5 13d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 29¢ $237 13d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $73 14d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Global Esports 44¢ $447 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $303 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $75 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $79 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 46¢ $93 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $95 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 24d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $93 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $119 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $91 29d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $91 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $95 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.50 · official $33.50 (match) · 212 history records