Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf1f3…b370 sports 46 markets active 8h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$864 (+6%) realized +$866 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate74%32W / 11L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$233
7 days+$148
14 days+$380
30 days+$661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$723
other 5% −$189
crypto 3% +$210
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.0% -0.4% 73% 42% -8.5%
≤30d 40 +13.0% +2.2% 78% 48% -5.5%
≤90d 43 +16.0% +4.9% 74% 47% -5.1%
all 43 +16.0% +4.9% 74% 47% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 47% -5.1%
10% -5.1% 30% -14.1%
15% -14.3% 23% -22.4%
20% -22.7% 19% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$88 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$866
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses32 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage64d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,963 −$396 -20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $150 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$62 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $213 −$121 -57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $592 +$68 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $151 +$20 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $280 +$25 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,055 +$54 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $413 +$119 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $498 +$91 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,558 +$97 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$64 +249%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $103 −$47 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$20 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $351 +$19 +5%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $1,302 +$60 +5%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $199 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,516 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 08 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$39 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $206 +$141 +69%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $244 +$82 +33%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $433 +$76 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $519 +$56 +11%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $501 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $288 +$280 +97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $50 +$86 +172%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 12 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $502 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $502 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 8¢ $32 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $25 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $197 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 29¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $203 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 40¢ $41 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $51 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $325 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 24¢ $20 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 91¢ $50 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 98¢ $100 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $100 15h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $215 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.98 · official $297.98 (match) · 171 history records