Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1f2…8c8d sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3484 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,822 (-2%) realized −$1,794 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 75L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$4,116per market
Trades / day3484.0pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$2,030
sports 29% +$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3484 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-85.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -83.8% -85.4% 9% 4% -6.7%
≤30d 82 -83.8% -85.4% 9% 4% -6.7%
≤90d 82 -83.8% -85.4% 9% 4% -6.7%
all 82 -83.8% -85.4% 9% 4% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3484.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -85.4% 4% -6.7%
10% -86.8% 1% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -88.1% 1% -23.8%
20% -89.2% 1% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -71% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
96.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$414 vs −$15 · ×27.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,575
Realized−$1,794
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions6
Markets (closed)82 / 18
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$4,116
Trades / day3484.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 99¢ 99¢ $561 $563 +$3 (+0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $550 $563 +$14 (+2%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 68¢ 68¢ $546 $540 −$6 (-1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 95¢ 96¢ $343 $349 +$7 (+2%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 31¢ 32¢ $252 $260 +$8 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $97 $101 +$5 (+5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 47¢ 46¢ $89 $86 −$3 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $24 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 8¢ 4¢ $36 $15 −$21 (-59%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$7 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$10 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$13 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$11 -176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$9 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$8 -170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$12 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$12 -856%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$7 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$8 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$7 -157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$6 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$14 -1551%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$16 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$16 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$6 -842%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$2 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$15 -204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$14 -256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$13 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$17 -1541%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $2 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $193 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $0 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $1 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $163 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $0 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $1 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $99 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $6 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $94 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $175 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $9 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $155 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 99¢ $199 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $193 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $184 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $2 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $8 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $193 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 3¢ $1 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $17 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 97¢ $176 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 0m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,575.20 · official $2,566.39 (match) · 3500 history records