Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf1f2…4f6d sports 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,700 (-8%) realized −$1,780 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%70W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$481
7 days+$259
14 days−$184
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$861
other 5% −$680
crypto 2% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.3% -9.2% 52% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 91 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 46% -10.6%
≤90d 170 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 41% -16.4%
all 170 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 41% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 41% -16.4%
10% -32.1% 40% -24.4%
15% -38.7% 38% -31.7%
20% -44.7% 34% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$95 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized−$1,780
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses70 / 100
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage50d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 67¢ 94¢ $171 $239 +$68 (+40%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 64¢ $45 $57 +$12 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $108 +$163 +152%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 17 $223 −$115 -52%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 17 $294 −$71 -24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $342 −$49 -14%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $13 +$7 +54%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $399 −$64 -16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $110 −$108 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $199 −$89 -45%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $147 +$87 +59%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $138 +$72 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $85 −$39 -46%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $449 +$471 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $163 +$116 +71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $292 −$288 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $269 −$174 -65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $159 +$104 +65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $155 +$154 +99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 +$139 +86%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $201 +$138 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$27 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $149 −$96 -64%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $111 −$109 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $92 +$113 +123%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $237 −$234 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $139 +$97 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $125 +$53 +42%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $201 −$41 -20%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $98 +$54 +55%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $252 +$120 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $231 +$121 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $514 +$31 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $79 −$78 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $140 +$39 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $170 +$269 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $135 −$133 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $258 −$89 -35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $98 +$37 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $213 −$210 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $148 +$162 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $128 +$93 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $91 +$53 +58%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $32 −$31 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $143 −$129 -90%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $46 21m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $173 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $271 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $108 2h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) SELL Athletics 29¢ $108 2h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 58¢ $223 3h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) SELL Athletics 49¢ $223 3h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 63¢ $294 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 46¢ $294 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 52¢ $342 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $20 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 64¢ $13 5h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) SELL Indiana Fever 45¢ $335 5h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 52¢ $399 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $110 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $110 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $199 13h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) SELL Athletics 100¢ $234 25h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $210 25h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 62¢ $147 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 31¢ $46 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 55¢ $85 27h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 65¢ $138 27h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $921 27h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $449 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $292 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $91 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 35¢ $90 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $179 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $280 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.10 · official $296.10 (match) · 302 history records