Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf1f1…0bd7 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$10
crypto 8% +$1
other 3% −$2
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -0.6% -10.1% 76% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage546d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $34 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $12 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $5,531 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Mar 13 $16 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $440b on February 28? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $21 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 20 $4 −$1 -33%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 05 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 63d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 92d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $20 92d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 123d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 149d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $12 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 303d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 99¢ $27 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 396d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 396d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.90 · official $43.90 (match) · 113 history records