Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf1f0…c9e4 sports 1071 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized −$127 · open +$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%568W / 498L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$1,132est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$850
14 days−$3,449
30 days−$2,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,563
other 7% +$332
world 2% +$489
politics 1% +$152
finance 0% −$180
crypto 0% +$126
culture 0% +$347
tech 0% −$55
economics 0% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% +14.8%
≤30d 78 -25.1% -32.2% 37% 37% -22.8%
≤90d 580 -3.7% -12.9% 53% 51% -11.0%
all 1066 -0.6% -10.1% 53% 52% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 52% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 50% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 47% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 42% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$171 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,564
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$196
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses568 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,132
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1066 / 1071
History coverage145d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1066 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 83¢ 87¢ $871 $913 +$42 (+5%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 52¢ 84¢ $190 $305 +$115 (+61%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Minnesota Lynx 43¢ 52¢ $150 $180 +$30 (+20%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Minnesota Lynx 44¢ 48¢ $85 $92 +$7 (+8%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $152 +$113 +75%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $142 +$81 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 19 $152 +$165 +108%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $104 +$181 +174%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $150 +$133 +89%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $166 +$197 +119%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $553 +$439 +79%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $712 +$565 +79%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 15 $213 +$253 +119%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 +$210 +206%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $168 +$171 +102%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $178 +$173 +97%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $388 +$241 +62%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $297 +$243 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $109 +$101 +93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $363 −$359 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $348 −$343 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $484 −$476 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $71 +$84 +119%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $200 +$208 +104%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $76 +$117 +154%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 10 $147 −$147 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? Jun 10 $57 −$57 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 Jun 10 $152 −$152 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 10 $81 −$81 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $220 −$220 -100%
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 10 $168 −$168 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 10 $369 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics Jun 10 $258 −$258 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 Jun 10 $245 −$245 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $271 −$271 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 83¢ $413 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 83¢ $439 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 83¢ $9 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 83¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $152 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 77¢ $223 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $142 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $0 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $39 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $106 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $1 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 43¢ $4 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $104 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 52¢ $86 2h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 44¢ $85 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 48¢ $72 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 47h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 47h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $152 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $102 3d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 47¢ $152 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $147 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 43¢ $150 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $2 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $166 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $553 6d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $712 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,564.07 · official $1,564.07 (match) · 3052 history records