Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1f0…163c
other · 25 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$25 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage27d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%
Chart Positions 2 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days−$18
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +357%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5 +$20 +433%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 23 $9 +$9 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 +$13 +251%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 84% −$35
crypto 16% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 16d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 20d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 22d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +68.9% +52.8% 50% 50% +58.5%
≤30d 23 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% -29.6%
≤90d 23 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% -29.6%
all 23 -4.2% -13.3% 30% 30% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 30% -29.6%
10% -21.6% 26% -36.3%
15% -29.2% 26% -42.5%
20% -36.1% 26% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.61 · official $3.61 (match) · 39 history records