Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F1 0xf1ef…8cd6 sports 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$10,431 (+2%) realized −$57,399 · open +$67,830
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%52W / 32L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$5,852per market
Trades / day70.6pace
Fees−$2,980est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$183,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$124,949
politics 23% +$379
world 19% +$56,235
other 14% +$7,660
crypto 0% +$2,163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +49.8% +35.5% 64% 56% +29.5%
≤30d 58 +25.2% +13.3% 60% 52% +15.7%
≤90d 84 +52.2% +37.7% 62% 54% +12.4%
all 84 +52.2% +37.7% 62% 54% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.7% 54% +12.4%
10% +24.5% 45% +1.6%
15% ← realistic here +12.5% 42% -8.2%
20% +1.5% 36% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$6,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +94% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
29.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,810 vs −$4,082 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$183,449
Realized−$57,399
Unrealized+$67,830
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses52 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,980
Open positions23
Markets (closed)84 / 104
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$5,852
Trades / day70.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 10¢ 85¢ $8,120 $67,920 +$59,800 (+736%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $12,920 $15,896 +$2,976 (+23%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $10,800 $13,275 +$2,475 (+23%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $7,600 $9,905 +$2,305 (+30%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $9,480 $9,337 −$143 (-2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $8,600 $9,050 +$450 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 84¢ 82¢ $8,400 $8,250 −$150 (-2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 74¢ $7,500 $7,450 −$50 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $7,500 $7,350 −$150 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 70¢ $7,600 $7,050 −$550 (-7%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 68¢ $5,520 $5,480 −$40 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,812 $4,894 +$82 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 18¢ 34¢ $1,820 $3,400 +$1,580 (+87%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $3,190 $3,260 +$70 (+2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $2,226 $2,597 +$371 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2,100 $1,930 −$170 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,700 $1,550 −$150 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,632 $1,379 −$253 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $845 $808 −$38 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $810 $802 −$8 (-1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 37¢ 26¢ $1,094 $746 −$348 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $860 $675 −$185 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $490 $445 −$45 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3,000 +$7,000 +233%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,500 +$2,500 +100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,530 +$1,470 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,150 +$1,850 +36%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,459 −$2,459 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2,850 +$2,150 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,400 +$3,600 +150%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,700 −$2,067 -56%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $7,500 +$2,500 +33%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,760 +$240 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $9,550 +$450 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 14 $4,620 −$4,620 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,305 −$2,305 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10,044 +$76,818 +765%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $1,387 +$4,327 +312%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,200 +$800 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,150 +$850 +20%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $3,200 +$1,800 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,760 +$4,240 +113%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $90,000 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $6,500 +$3,500 +54%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $179 +$22 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,792 +$2,208 +123%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $170 −$170 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,816 −$1,816 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $14,529 −$14,529 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10,300 −$6,300 -61%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $158 +$24 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,920 −$565 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $6,500 +$3,000 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $6,080 +$1,320 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 30 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 30 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 30 $5,003 −$5,003 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $4,760 −$4,760 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $4,260 −$4,260 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 30 $11,320 −$8,880 -78%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $7,576 −$4,446 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $5,160 +$840 +16%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $5,066 +$4,487 +89%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $1,980 +$4,020 +203%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $3,300 +$2,700 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $2,700 +$156 +6%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $3,596 +$404 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $31 9m
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL No 26¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,887 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $11 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $640 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $450 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $143 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $80 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $94 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $400 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $60 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $132 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $20 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $35 2h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL No 26¢ $1 3h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $456 3h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $2 3h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183,448.61 · official $183,448.61 (match) · 3500 history records