Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ed…3a80 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%45W / 22L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$45
other 2% −$1
sports 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 39% -4.6%
≤30d 67 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 39% -4.6%
≤90d 67 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 39% -4.6%
all 67 +1.3% -8.3% 67% 39% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 39% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 28% -13.7%
15% -25.1% 19% -22.0%
20% -32.5% 15% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses45 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$8 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$25 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$15 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $73 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $60 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $58 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $64 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $63 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $61 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records