Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:25:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F1 0xf1e8…9826 sports 773 markets active 0h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$322 (+7%) realized +$297 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%333W / 437L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$20
14 days+$78
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$398
other 25% −$140
politics 2% +$9
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 36% -6.5%
≤30d 259 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 39% -0.8%
≤90d 655 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 40% -4.5%
all 770 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 40% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 40% -4.9%
10% -18.1% 38% -14.0%
15% -26.0% 36% -22.3%
20% -33.2% 32% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses333 / 437
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)770 / 773
History coverage252d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 770 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Rinky Hijikata 14¢ 38¢ $20 $55 +$35 (+176%)
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Zhizhen Zhang 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $32 −$18 -56%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $20 +$27 +131%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $10 −$3 -27%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -77%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $2 +$7 +341%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $2 +$1 +71%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $4 +$6 +168%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$1 -16%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $4 +$9 +254%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $19 +$3 +17%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $46 +$86 +187%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $20 +$28 +138%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$6 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$13 -65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$8 +155%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$3 +104%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$14 +191%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$12 +164%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 21¢ $20 10m
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 15¢ $10 14m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 14¢ $21 40m
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 26¢ $31 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser SELL Valentina Ryser 22¢ $13 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 2¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Valentina Ryser 1¢ $0 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 48¢ $47 1h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 20¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 9¢ $5 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic 3¢ $3 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic 3¢ $1 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic BUY Elena Micic 6¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 6¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 30¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 28¢ $7 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 11¢ $3 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 5¢ $0 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $2 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 19h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $9 26h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 7¢ $2 26h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 34¢ $4 28h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 19¢ $2 28h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 6¢ $5 29h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 42¢ $10 30h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 15¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.72 · official $69.91 · 2157 history records