Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1e5…7d91 crypto 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$898 (-10%) realized −$898 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate85%150W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$96
14 days−$904
30 days−$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$763
crypto 41% −$27
sports 8% −$67
politics 2% −$196
culture 2% +$242
world 1% −$100
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +94.4% +75.9% 100% 100% +75.9%
≤30d 3 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 67% -73.2%
≤90d 129 -0.8% -10.3% 95% 4% -29.8%
all 177 +0.9% -8.7% 85% 17% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 17% -18.6%
10% -17.5% 12% -26.4%
15% -25.4% 10% -33.5%
20% -32.8% 9% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$129 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses150 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage448d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$96 +94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $131 +$36 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $203 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 03 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 02 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 02 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $200 −$196 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 07 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 06 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 06 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 70¢ $198 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $102 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 7d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 100¢ $166 27d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 78¢ $131 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $233 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records