Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1e1…c152 weather 286 markets active 14h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$14,962 (+76%) realized +$14,962 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%94W / 191L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day81.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,892
7 days+$2,659
14 days+$3,282
30 days+$9,262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$10,776
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +103.3% +83.9% 43% 40% +65.7%
≤30d 274 +7.0% -3.2% 31% 28% +36.3%
≤90d 285 +12.2% +1.5% 33% 29% +39.6%
all 285 +12.2% +1.5% 33% 29% +39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 29% +39.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 26% +26.2%
15% -17.1% 24% +14.0%
20% -25.2% 21% +2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$17 · ×8.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.41 per $1 lost it wins $4.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$14,962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses94 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day81.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 285 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $130 +$57 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $63 +$325 +518%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$69 +3471%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $8 +$5 +66%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $26 +$974 +3802%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $52 +$176 +339%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 −$27 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$35 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $16 −$15 -90%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $35 +$40 +116%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $28 +$287 +1016%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $8 +$124 +1629%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $216 +$276 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$14 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 −$40 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $249 +$239 +96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 −$6 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $18 −$10 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $109 +$51 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$174 +190%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 12 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $474 +$111 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 $0 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $9 −$7 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $18 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $344 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $328 −$321 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $121 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $53 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $144 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records