Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1e0…041b sports 1331 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,859 (+3%) realized +$7,029 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%740W / 550L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$1,623est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$15,947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,438
7 days−$3,081
14 days−$4,065
30 days−$1,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$5,413
other 48% +$9,914
world 1% +$962
crypto 0% +$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +20.6% +9.1% 54% 50% -18.4%
≤30d 327 +9.9% -0.5% 55% 54% -11.7%
≤90d 1290 +7.7% -2.5% 57% 56% -7.2%
all 1290 +7.7% -2.5% 57% 56% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 56% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 53% -16.1%
15% -20.4% 47% -24.2%
20% -28.2% 37% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$152 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$15,947
Realized+$7,029
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses740 / 550
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,623
Open positions41
Markets (closed)1290 / 1331
History coverage72d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 1290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 46¢ $4,914 $4,788 −$126 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 71¢ 70¢ $1,984 $1,980 −$5 (-0%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $777 $782 +$5 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $721 $716 −$5 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $702 $716 +$14 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $693 $697 +$5 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 58¢ $543 $548 +$5 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $431 $426 −$5 (-1%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 99¢ $271 $308 +$37 (+14%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $256 $305 +$49 (+19%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $193 $289 +$95 (+49%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 92¢ $272 $288 +$16 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $279 $280 +$1 (+0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $287 $276 −$11 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $271 $264 −$8 (-3%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 78¢ $228 $245 +$17 (+8%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $239 $241 +$2 (+1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $265 $223 −$42 (-16%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 37¢ 38¢ $218 $221 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 70¢ $246 $220 −$27 (-11%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 77¢ $156 $219 +$62 (+40%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $209 $217 +$8 (+4%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 59¢ $187 $184 −$3 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $128 $164 +$36 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 41¢ $144 $128 −$16 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $749 +$187 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $990 −$54 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,595 −$2,574 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $936 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $287 −$281 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,706 −$1,685 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $395 −$395 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $726 −$726 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $309 −$309 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $449 +$487 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $762 +$174 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $693 +$243 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $356 +$580 +163%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,075 +$165 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $271 −$271 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $590 +$346 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $934 +$2 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 +$849 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $165 +$186 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $627 +$309 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $225 +$711 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $747 −$150 -20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $674 −$674 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $438 −$438 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $524 −$524 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $475 −$475 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $683 −$683 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $753 +$183 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $180 +$173 +96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $683 +$253 +37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $409 +$527 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $683 +$253 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $730 +$206 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $786 +$150 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $931 +$5 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $272 +$60 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $400 +$536 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $430 +$202 +47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $159 +$777 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $393 +$543 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $384 +$552 +144%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $157 −$157 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $265 −$265 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $606 −$606 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $524 −$524 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $447 8m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $447 22m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $5 49m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $54 49m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $43 50m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $58 50m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $11 50m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $11 50m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $39 50m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $21 51m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $21 51m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $12 51m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $65 51m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $4 52m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $32 52m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $151 53m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $11 53m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 70¢ $118 53m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $781 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $447 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $670 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $456 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $440 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $81 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $104 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,947.09 · official $15,952.90 (match) · 3348 history records