Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F1 0xf1e0…ca09 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-51%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 189d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$234
economics 9% −$60
politics 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-77.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.1% +37.6% 100% 100% +37.6%
≤30d 2 -24.0% -31.2% 50% 50% -45.8%
≤90d 2 -24.0% -31.2% 50% 50% -45.8%
all 6 -74.7% -77.1% 17% 17% -54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.1% 17% -54.0%
10% -79.3% 17% -58.4%
15% -81.3% 17% -62.4%
20% -83.1% 17% -66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$88 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage189d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $220 +$115 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $345 −$339 -98%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $335 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $220 17h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $344 24d
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 189d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 189d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records