Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf1d8…8dd3 other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,293 (+20%) realized +$6,293 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%47W / 40L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$4,860
14 days+$4,732
30 days+$4,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$4,742
sports 20% +$1,372
world 2% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +142.0% +119.0% 57% 57% +64.5%
≤30d 14 +83.1% +65.7% 57% 50% +34.5%
≤90d 70 +19.3% +7.9% 60% 50% +10.8%
all 87 +9.0% -1.4% 54% 45% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 45% +7.9%
10% -10.8% 36% -2.5%
15% -19.4% 31% -11.9%
20% -27.3% 24% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$158 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses47 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage118d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $53 +$77 +145%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,966 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $426 +$76 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,490 −$79 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $367 −$367 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $208 −$82 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $373 +$3,268 +877%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,202 −$12 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $523 +$38 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 10 $255 −$26 -10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 10 $727 −$727 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $404 +$49 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $67 +$130 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $615 +$421 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $428 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $338 −$338 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $114 +$71 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $204 +$144 +70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $97 +$45 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $441 −$289 -65%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5 May 09 $1,203 +$720 +60%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $220 +$80 +36%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $288 +$528 +183%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 06 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $180 −$180 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-02? May 06 $164 −$164 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 05 $575 +$482 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $296 +$66 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $360 +$12 +3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $117 +$11 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $166 +$52 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1,424 +$600 +42%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1,067 +$261 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $212 +$429 +202%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 24 $169 −$88 -52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $463 +$5 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 22 $245 +$2 +1%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 21 $400 +$22 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $501 +$147 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $90 −$18 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $93 +$55 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $487 +$61 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $53 +$142 +268%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $60 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $59 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $19 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $38 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $36 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $12 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $3 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $921 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $8 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $276 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $141 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $616 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $284 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1526 history records