Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1d5…54d5 sports 768 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$347 (+1%) realized +$812 · open −$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate75%575W / 189L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$445est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,524
7 days−$4,810
14 days−$2,147
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$409
crypto 8% −$287
other 2% +$412
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -49.2% -54.0% 32% 20% -34.6%
≤30d 343 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 29% -8.2%
≤90d 764 -3.7% -12.9% 75% 20% -9.3%
all 764 -3.7% -12.9% 75% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 20% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 14% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 11% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$47 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$812
Unrealized−$465
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses575 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$445
Open positions4
Markets (closed)764 / 768
History coverage70d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 764 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre 22¢ 16¢ $86 $64 −$22 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Ursa 24¢ 0¢ $285 $1 −$285 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 37¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Ursa 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $103 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $250 +$131 +52%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $18 +$17 +97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $352 +$48 +14%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $87 +$8 +9%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $316 −$316 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $113 −$5 -5%
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna Jun 17 $65 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $424 +$298 +70%
Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Team G - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Serna vs. Ambrogi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 17 $152 +$74 +49%
Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$32 +32%
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ku vs. Pliskova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Rodionov vs. Lajovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs VENOM ESPOR (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 17 $35 −$21 -58%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C Jun 17 $173 −$13 -8%
ITF Kayseri: Adhithya Ganesan vs Kerem Yilmaz Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Bol: Weronika Falkowska vs Lea Boskovic Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Wu vs. Giron: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $60 −$30 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Serna vs. Ambrogi: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Map Handicap: Leo (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Perricard vs. Andreescu: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $287 −$87 -30%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs TNC - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $157 +$49 +31%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $98 7m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 35¢ $71 14m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 39¢ $80 14m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $142 28m
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre BUY Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre 27¢ $55 29m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 60¢ $239 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 39¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 45¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $93 1h
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre BUY Stefan Ilie Bogdan Petre 16¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 96¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 96¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 43¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 43¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner SELL Ursa 15¢ $98 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 25¢ $165 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY Ursa 26¢ $106 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY Ursa 23¢ $185 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $103 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 88¢ $264 14h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 88¢ $88 14h
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) SELL illwill 54¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 54¢ $95 16h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 51¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 51¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 49¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.80 · official $64.81 (match) · 2462 history records