Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1d4…a063 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3
other 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-63.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -59.8% -63.7% 33% 33% -63.7%
≤30d 3 -59.8% -63.7% 33% 33% -63.7%
≤90d 3 -59.8% -63.7% 33% 33% -63.7%
all 3 -59.8% -63.7% 33% 33% -63.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.7% 33% -63.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.1% 0% -67.2%
15% -70.3% 0% -70.3%
20% -73.2% 0% -73.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)3 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman Paul Inchauspe 30¢ 97¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+222%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo 59¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 58¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 94¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+85%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 33¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+52%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5 Over 33¢ 40¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Toronto Tempo 49¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Croatia 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Phoenix Mercury 42¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 24¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $11 −$5 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY No 98¢ $5 50m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 33¢ $0 53m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 53m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 13¢ $4 56m
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 94¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY No 99¢ $5 59m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 59m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 42¢ $5 59m
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Croatia 95¢ $5 59m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 13¢ $1 59m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 58¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 49¢ $5 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 61¢ $5 1h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Paul Inchauspe 30¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 65¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $5 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $5 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Inaki Montes 100¢ $35 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 13¢ $3 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $5 2h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 25¢ $3 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 42¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.74 · official $133.71 · 38 history records