Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ca…3e34 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$6
world 30% −$1
crypto 10% +$2
politics 6% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 17% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.0%
all 56 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 4% -8.9%
10% -22.9% 2% -17.6%
15% -30.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -37.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage475d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $84 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Dec 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 31 $3 −$1 -21%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $7 $0 +8%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 27 $0 $0 -33%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 22 $3 −$3 -80%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 22 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 17 $4 −$1 -29%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 9? May 09 $19 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $20 $0 -0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 07 $19 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 11 $23 $0 +2%
Will Logan and Jake Paul fight before April? Apr 02 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 30 $21 +$1 +3%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $44 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $42 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $42 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $39 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $24 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 13d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $7 355d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 4¢ $0 378d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 4¢ $0 378d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 4¢ $0 378d
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 4¢ $0 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records