Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf1ca…9fe5
crypto · 93 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses84 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage460d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 2 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 29 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 15? Apr 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 31? Apr 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 24? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24? Mar 30 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 9? Mar 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 4? Mar 09 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Mar 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 30? Feb 10 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? Jan 07 $87 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of December 202 Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 26? Jan 01 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on December 20? Dec 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 15? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on December 16? Dec 19 $40 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Spotify: Music and Podcasts be #1 Free App in the US Apple App St Dec 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 7? Dec 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 5? Dec 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 19? Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 19? Dec 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Dec 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November Nov 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 18? Nov 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 17? Nov 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 7? Nov 17 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% +$3
other 39% +$9
world 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $89 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $89 27d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $89 37d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $88 45d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $88 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $88 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $88 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $13 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $75 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $88 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $88 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $88 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 30? BUY No 100¢ $87 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 152d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 163d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $77 170d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on December 20? BUY No 100¢ $77 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on December 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 180d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $35 180d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on December 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 91 -3.4% -12.6% 92% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.4%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.38 · official $88.38 (match) · 185 history records