Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1ca…b88a world 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$9
economics 25% $0
sports 18% −$11
politics 13% +$1
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 30 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 32 -8.7% -17.4% 31% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage485d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $72 +$6 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $35 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $547 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $280 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 04 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $97 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $100 $0 -0%
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Gonzaga vs. Washington State Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $39 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $39 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $33 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $24 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $39 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $42 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $36 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $33 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records