Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf1c6…5177 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$89 (-28%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$100
sports 13% −$13
crypto 5% +$10
politics 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -41.7%
≤30d 12 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -41.7%
≤90d 12 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -41.7%
all 12 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 50% -41.7%
10% -39.9% 42% -47.3%
15% -45.7% 25% -52.4%
20% -51.1% 8% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage417d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$26 -51%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 +$15 +41%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$5 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $51 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $54 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 BUY Yes 11¢ $9 417d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records