Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf1c4…d965 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$417 (+14%) realized +$572 · open −$155
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$359
7 days+$1,051
14 days+$1,051
30 days+$1,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$150
finance 18% −$507
sports 17% +$282
politics 16% +$693
other 15% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +79.5% +62.4% 67% 67% +98.4%
≤30d 6 +79.5% +62.4% 67% 67% +98.4%
≤90d 7 +53.9% +39.2% 57% 57% +25.9%
all 7 +53.9% +39.2% 57% 57% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.2% 57% +25.9%
10% +25.9% 57% +13.9%
15% +13.7% 57% +2.9%
20% +2.6% 57% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$214 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,040
Realized+$572
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage44d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $1,000 $850 −$150 (-15%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$114 +112%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $85 +$192 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $99 +$186 +188%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $462 +$693 +150%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 04 $518 −$507 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $77 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $216 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 6h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 13¢ $77 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $85 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $99 36h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $500 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $160 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,155 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $486 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 44d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $462 44d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 44d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $390 44d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,040.22 · official $1,090.22 · 68 history records